The K-Pop Bubble is Bursting? 1st Decline in Album Export Value in 9 Years
The K-pop album export value for the 1st half of the year has turned to a decline for the first time in 9 years.
According to customs import and export trade statistics, the K-pop album export value from January to June this year was $130,321,000, or 179.4 billion KRW, which is a 2% decrease compared to the same period last year.
This is the first time the album export value has shown negative growth in the first half of the year since 2015.
The export value decreased by 7.0% from 19 billion KRW in 2014 to 17.6 billion KRW in 2015. However, it grew annually from the following year, reaching 183 billion KRW last year, riding the wave of the K-pop Hallyu.
Examining the album export value for the first half of this year by country, Japan had the highest value at 64.8 billion KRW, followed by the United States at 42.1 billion KRW, and China at 25.4 billion KRW.
The total album sales volume, which indicates the scale of the K-pop market, also decreased.
The cumulative album sales volume for the top 1-400 albums from January to June this year was about 47.6 million copies, which is approximately 8 million fewer than the same period last year.
However, the industry believes that this is a foundational stage for K-pop’s re-emergence.
The anticipated activities of BTS and BLACKPINK, the biggest IPs in K-pop, which will become more prominent in the second half of the year and next year, are seen as bright prospects for K-pop’s future. In particular, BTS is expected to make a full-group comeback next year and resume global activities. BLACKPINK is also highly anticipated to make a full-group comeback next year.
The re-expansion into the Japanese market is also a positive move for the K-pop industry, and local idols represented by groups like KATSEYE are also expanding. SM Entertainment is preparing a British boy group, whose debut process will be revealed through the BBC.
The debut of new artists, which will provide momentum, continues. SM Entertainment will launch a girl group and virtual artist in the second half of the year, and HYBE is reportedly preparing another boy group with a target debut next year.
Despite the decline in album sales, music streaming performance continues to rise steadily. As consumer patterns change, revenue generation routes are also diversifying. HYBE plans to introduce a paid subscription model on their fandom platform, Weverse.
However, if the recovery of album sales in China, the biggest expected factor, and the revenue traction in major developed markets like the US and Japan progress slower than expected, the K-pop crisis phase could prolong. Lee Ki-hoon, a researcher at Hana Securities, noted, “The impact of the decline in Chinese album group orders is diminishing in the recent comebacks of idol groups.”
