According to a statistical analysis by Opta, PSG holds the highest probability of winning the title at 39%, bolstered by their 2-0 quarterfinal victory over Bayern Munich. The French champions have showcased a balanced and cohesive squad under head coach Luis Enrique, excelling both offensively and defensively throughout the tournament in the United States.
Despite their semifinal clash with Real Madrid scheduled for the early hours of July 10 (KST), Opta still places PSG ahead of their Spanish rivals in terms of progression odds.
Real Madrid, managed by Xabi Alonso, secured a dramatic 3-2 win over Borussia Dortmund in the quarterfinals. However, their performances have raised concerns, reflected in their 24% chance of winning the tournament—significantly lower than PSG’s.
In terms of semifinal advancement, Opta gives Real Madrid a 35.6% chance of reaching the final, while PSG stands strong at 64.4%.
Chelsea, the only remaining Premier League representative, is rated with a 34% chance of claiming the trophy. They benefit from a more favorable semifinal matchup against Fluminense, with a projected 75.3% chance of reaching the final.
Meanwhile, Fluminense, the sole South American contender, is viewed as the underdog of the final four. With a modest €22.5 million wage bill—ten times less than Chelsea’s—the Brazilian club shocked many by advancing to the semifinals. However, Opta gives them only a 3% chance to win the title and 24.7% odds of making the final.
With elite teams on display and statistical projections in play, all eyes will be on the PSG vs. Real Madrid clash—a potential de facto final. Will Opta’s predictions hold true, or can Real or another contender defy the odds? Fans won’t have to wait long to find out.